Reproduced from: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 2022. “Drought Monthly Outlook.” Data Snapshots. Available at: https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/data-snapshots/data-source/drought-monthly-outlook
This Summer, as temperatures rise and precipitation decreases or remains unchanged, much of the western half of the Lower 48 is at high risk for intense drought. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) monthly drought outlook, conditions are forecasted to improve or stay the same on the Atlantic coast and parts of the Great Plains and Pacific Northwest regions due to below-normal temperatures and above normal precipitation through June 2022, but while conditions in the rest of the continental United States worsen.
Persistent or worsening droughts can cause decreased streamflow, dry soils, and large-scale death of vegetation. These conditions increase the potential for wildfires that spread more rapidly, burn more severely, and are more costly to suppress. Based on the National Integrated Drought Information System’s (NIDIS) recommendations, prescribed burns can reduce the potential for wildfires by thinning the amount of vegetation available to ignite. However, with this method, local air quality deteriorates severely. In regions with large swaths of farmland that are vulnerable to wildfires, like the San Joaquin Valley in California, poor air quality from agricultural burns is particularly harmful for residents’ respiratory health. While wildfire prevention and coordinating evacuations are crucial in drought conditions, there is a long-term need to consider how the related damage to air quality will affect millions of people this Summer and in the coming decades.
