Puerto Rico Integrated Resource Plan: Lessons from Hawaii's Electric Sector

Client: Earthjustice

Authors: Bryndis Woods, Eliandro Tavares, Sagal Alisalad and Liz Stanton, PhD

October 2019

Researcher Bryndis Woods, Assistant Researchers Eliandro Tavares and Sagal Alisalad and Clinic Director and Senior Economist Liz Stanton, PhD prepared a report that compares Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority’s (PREPA’s) most recent version of its Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), released in June 2019, to best practices distilled from the most recent Hawaiian electric sector planning process, which was finalized in 2016. The report presents the parallels between Hawaii and Puerto Rico’s island electric systems and outlines how important lessons from the Hawaiian context have the potential to improve Puerto Rico’s planning process, ensure that PREPA is in compliance with Puerto Rico’s climate laws, and provide the lowest possible rates to consumers.

Link to Report

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A Future for Indiana Coal: Emissions and Costs of Alternative Electric Generation

Client: Citizens Action Coalition of Indiana

Authors: Bryndis Woods and Liz Stanton, PhD

October 2019

Researcher Bryndis Woods and Clinic Director and Senior Economist Liz Stanton, PhD prepared a report on behalf of the Citizens Action Coalition of Indiana that examines the cost and emission impacts of various options available to the State of Indiana as it replaces its aging coal generation fleet with other electric-generating resources. The report finds that: replacing aging coal with renewables reduces emissions and saves money and that gas-fired resources do not provide clear benefits as a bridge to greater renewables.

Link to Report

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Comparative Costs of Alaska Fire Management

Client: Union of Concerned Scientists

Authors: Liz Stanton, PhD, Sagal Alisalad, and Myisha Majumder

September 2019

Clinic Director and Senior Economist Liz Stanton, PhD, Assistant Researcher Sagal Alisalad, and Research Assistant Myisha Majumder prepared a report that estimates the cost of fire management per tonne of CO₂ in Alaska using data on fire incidents in Alaska from 2007 to 2015. The report used econometric analysis to estimate the effects of fire management on the number of acres burned and calculate the cost to avoid forest fire per tonne of CO₂ saved. The report also presented costs of fire damages for a number of categories including property losses and timber lost.

Link to Report

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Local Responsibility for a Global Problem: Juliana v. U.S. (In Memory of Frank Ackerman)

Liz Stanton, PhD

September 2019

On September 18th, 2019, Clinic Director and Senior Economist Liz Stanton, PhD spoke at Tufts University to celebrate the life and work of Frank Ackerman, one of the world's foremost experts on climate economics. Dr. Stanton remarked on Dr. Ackerman’s work on Juliana v. the United States, an ongoing case in which 21 kids are suing the U.S. government for knowingly failing to protect them from climate change. She said, "Frank would ask us—and ask the U.S. government—to weigh monetary costs against unmonetizable benefits. And to recognize when the only solution to a global problem requires the whole world’s participation, that reducing our moral responsibility to the isolated impacts of individual action is petty, specious, and really not the way anything important has ever gotten done in global history."

Read the full transcript of Dr. Stanton's speech, published in the Dollars&Sense and TripleCrisis blogs.

On Frank Ackerman:

In Memoriam, Frank Ackerman

Dr. Ackerman's Website

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Load Forecasting Best Practices

Client: Citizens Action Coalition of Indiana

Liz Stanton, PhD

September 2019

On behalf of Citizens Action Coalition of Indiana, Clinic Director and Senior Economist Liz Stanton, PhD gave a presentation on best practices in load forecasting to the Indiana General Assembly's 21st Century Energy Policy Development Task Force at their September 19, 2019 meeting.

Link to Presentation

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An analysis of the need for the Atlantic Coast Pipeline Extension to Hampton Roads, Virginia

Client: Mothers Out Front

Liz Stanton, PhD, and Eliandro Tavares

September 2019

On behalf of Mothers Out Front, Clinic Director and Senior Economist Liz Stanton, PhD, and Assistant Researcher Eliandro Tavares prepared a white paper that analyzed the need for the Hampton Roads spur of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline. The white paper concludes that: Virginia Natural Gas (VNG) has substantially overstated its annual peak demand growth forecasts; VNG has presented no evidence that any gas supply constraint could affect electric supply in the region; and any industrial gas curtailments in the Hampton Roads area appear to have been voluntary in exchange for price reductions.

Link to White Paper

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Testimony on New Hampshire's Liberty Gas Supply Planning

Client: Conservation Law Foundation

Liz Stanton, PhD

September 2019

On behalf of Conservation Law Foundation, Clinic Director and Senior Economist Liz Stanton, PhD provided Applied Economics Clinic expert testimony in Dockets 17-152 and 17-189 before the New Hampshire Public Utilities Commission. In her testimonies, Dr. Stanton addressed the need to evaluate the environmental impacts of new gas infrastructure as it relates to climate change. Her testimonies concluded that Liberty Gas’ least cost integrated resource plan fails to adequately address the climate change impacts of the Company’s planned expansion of gas.

Link to 17-152 Testimony

Link to 17-198 Testimony

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Risks Growing for India’s Coal Sector

Client: Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA)

Authors: Bryndis Woods and David Schlissel (IEEFA)

September 2019

Researcher Bryndis Woods and Director of Resource Planning Analysis at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) David Schlissel prepared a report that presents three major risks confronting India’s coal sector:

(1)   The over-building of coal-fired capacity. The boom in coal plant construction during the early 2010s has resulted in significant over-capacity. The amount of installed coal-fired capacity in India is now 20 percent higher than the country’s peak demand level and fully 50 gigawatts (GW) above average demand levels.

(2)   Increasing competition from renewable energy sources, particularly during the monsoon season. Low-cost renewable wind and hydro energy sources have a great advantage during the monsoon season, when coal generation dips while wind and hydro generation peak.

(3) Declining water supplies. Groundwater levels across India are in decline. Since 2012, both total annual rainfall and monsoon rainfall have generally been below normal levels ‒ a major concern for coal generation, which requires substantial amounts of water for steam production and cooling.

The report concludes that these risks are already manifesting, and will intensify in the years ahead. As a result, Indian policy makers should: agree not to built additional coal-fired plants; review plants under construction for possible cancellation; conduct an economic assessment of the nation’s oldest coal-fired power plants to determine their financial viability; and address coal capacity in the most drought-stricken as a priority.

Link to Report

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Emission Reduction Synergies for Massachusetts Community Choice Energy Programs, Heat Pumps and Electric Vehicles

Client: Green Energy Consumers Alliance (GECA)

Authors: Bryndis Woods, Liz Stanton, PhD, Tyler Comings and Eliandro Tavares

August 2019

Researcher Bryndis Woods, Clinic Director and Senior Economist Liz Stanton, PhD, Senior Researcher Tyler Comings and Assistant Researcher Eliandro Tavares prepared a policy brief that estimates the greenhouse gas emissions reduction impact from an electric heat pump or electric vehicle of a typical Massachusetts household enrolled in a Community Choice Energy (CCE) program. We find that Massachusetts households that have an electric heat pump or electric vehicle—as opposed to natural gas heating and electric A/C or a gas vehicle—and are enrolled in a CCE program with 5 percent additional renewable supply than mandated by state law reduce their emissions by 69 and 74 percent, respectively, in 2030.

Link to Policy Brief

Link to Citations and Notes

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Analysis of the Mountain Valley Pipeline Southgate Project

Client: Appalachian Voices

Authors: Liz Stanton, PhD and Eliandro Tavares

July 2019

On behalf of Appalachian Voices, Clinic Director and Senior Economist Liz Stanton, PhD and Assistant Researcher Eliandro Tavares prepared a report that uses publicly available data and documents to examine the need for the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) Southgate project, concluding that neither the developer nor the gas utility have demonstrated the need for MVP Southgate. The report finds that:

• MVP LLC has not provided sufficient evidence of the need for MVP Southgate.

• PSNC’s forecasts of gas demands are higher than other publicly available forecasts for the region.

• Lower gas demand forecasts eliminate or delay the need for additional supply capacity.

• Cost-effective supply- and demand-side alternatives exist to new pipeline infrastructure.

Link to Report

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Comment on Transco's Assessment of Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions from NYC's Proposed NESE Pipeline

Client: Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC)

Author: Liz Stanton, PhD

July 2019

Clinic Director and Senior Economist Liz Stanton, PhD, assisted the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) in comments on Transco’s assessment of the greenhouse gas emissions associated with the Northeast Supply Enhancement Project (NESE) expansion of its existing interstate pipeline to bring additional gas capacity to New York City and Long Island. Dr. Stanton concluded that Williams’ assessment rests on several faulty assumptions that overstate the emissions of alternatives to the pipeline, and that the evidence supplied by Transco does not support their claim that NESE would lower emissions.

Link to Comment (starting on pdf p.30)

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Petrochemical Company Research

Client: Louisiana Bucket Brigade

Authors: Liz Stanton, PhD, Eliandro Tavares, Tanya Stasio, and Myisha Majumder

May 2019 - Present

Applied Economics Clinic staff supported Louisiana Bucket Brigade in their research into petrochemical company ownership and decision-making.

Testimony on Eversource's Proposed East Eagle Street Substation

Client: GreenRoots

Author: Bryndis Woods

May 2019 - June 2019

On behalf of GreenRoots, Researcher Bryndis Woods provided testimony on Eversource's justification for its proposed East Eagle Street Substation. Ms. Woods testified that Eversource has failed to substantiate its argument that the East Eagle Street Substation is needed to maintain reliability. Eversource's claimed reliability concerns include: increasing customer demand—despite the fact that ISO-New England's most recent load forecast is projected to decrease (see Figure above)—and a new Massport customer project—which is neither clearly identified or described. Eversource would need to provide updated load forecasts and more detailed information on the Massport project for a third-party review to determine the validity of Eversource's reliability claims.

Link to Testimony

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Home Heat Pumps in Massachusetts

Client: Green Energy Consumers Alliance (GECA)

Authors: Ricardo Lopez, PhD, Tyler Comings, Liz Stanton, PhD, and Eliandro Tavares

November 2018 - May 2019

Senior Researchers Ricardo Lopez, PhD and Tyler Comings, Clinic Director and Senior Economist Liz Stanton, PhD and Assistant Researcher Eliandro Tavares prepared a report that assessed the cost to replace residential heating and cooling systems with: 1) a gas furnace and electric central air conditioning (AC), or 2) an electric heat pump that provides both heating and cooling. The report finds that the cost-effectiveness of heat pumps depends on home-specific differences—with current Massachusetts rebates, owners of aging oil heating systems save $158 per year by choosing to replace with a heat pump instead of a gas furnace and central AC. For owners of gas heating systems, however, rebates for heat pumps are smaller than rebates for new gas furnaces, raising the relative cost of choosing heat pumps from $36 per year with no rebates to $73 per year with rebates. Even without rebates, the lifetime costs of heat pumps are only marginally more expensive than a gas furnace and central AC (see Figure above).

Link to Report (Updated July 2019)

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Fixing Massachusetts' Gas Leaks Pays for Itself

Client: Gas Leak Allies

Authors: Bryndis Woods, Liz Stanton, PhD, and Eliandro Tavares

November 2018 - May 2019

Researcher Bryndis Woods, Clinic Director and Senior Economist Liz Stanton, PhD, and Assistant Researcher Eliandro Tavares prepared a policy brief discussing natural gas leaks in Massachusetts and assessing the return on investment for gas leak repairs in the Commonwealth.

The policy brief estimates the payback period for repairing two volume-based categories of non-explosion-hazard gas leaks (called “Grade 3” leaks):

1. Leaks of Significant Environmental Impact (“Grade 3 SEI”): The top 10 percent of Grade 3 leaks, which is responsible for approximately 53 percent of lost gas.

2. Other Grade 3 leaks: The bottom 90 percent of Grade 3 leaks, which is responsible for 47 percent of lost gas.

The policy brief concludes that, while the average cost to fix a Grade 3 leak is approximately the same ($3,740) regardless of the leak volume, the cost of lost gas is not. Grade 3 SEI leaks cost $3,850 a year in lost gas, on average, while Other Grade 3 leaks cost $380. This ten-to-one difference in the cost of leaked gas means that SEI leaks pay for their own repairs ten times faster than other Grade 3 leaks; in 1 year versus 10 years, respectively (see Figure above).

This policy brief is the second of two AEC publications on behalf of Gas Leak Allies. Our April 2019 policy brief analyzed performance-based incentives that can align Massachusetts natural gas utilities' business interests with their responsibility to reduce emissions.

Link to Policy Brief

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Social Equity Analysis of Carbon Free Boston

Client: Green Ribbon Commission

Authors: Bryndis Woods, Liz Stanton, PhD, and Applied Economics Clinic Staff

December 2018 - May 2019

In May 2019, Applied Economics Clinic worked together with All Aces and the Institute for Sustainable Energy (ISE) at Boston University to produce Carbon Free Boston: Social Equity Report 2019 on behalf of the Boston Green Ribbon Commission (GRC). The report details how actions taken toward carbon neutrality, which will fundamentally transform the city’s buildings, transportation, waste and energy systems, will also affect socially vulnerable populations and provides a roadmap to equitably engage the City’s communities in climate action. The report finds that the path to carbon neutrality presents a unique opportunity to address historic inequities while creating a cleaner, healthier and more prosperous City for all those who live and work in Boston. Three themes defined the framework for the social equity analysis: 1) careful planning to avoid unintended consequences, 2) intentional design with a clear focus on equity outcomes, and 3) inclusive practices from start to finish in all decision making.

For more information, see Carbon Free Boston on The City of Boston’s website.

Link to Social Equity Report

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Testimony on Sooner Coal Plant Scrubbers

Source: The Oklahoman

Client: Sierra Club

Author: Tyler Comings

April 2019

On behalf of Sierra Club, Senior Researcher Tyler Comings provided testimony on the prudence of Oklahoma Gas and Electric (OG&E's) investment in scrubbers for its Sooner coal plant. Mr. Comings testified that OG&E was imprudent in choosing the scrubber investment in 2014 and also imprudent in not updating the analysis underlying that decision when new facts became available.

Link to Testimony

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Comments on Southwestern Electric Power Company's Draft 2019 Integrated Resource Plan

SWEPCO John W. Turk Jr. Power Plant

Source: Power Engineering

Client: Sierra Club

Authors: Sierra Club with assistance from AEC (Tyler Comings, Bryndis Woods, Ricardo Lopez, PhD, and Eliandro Tavares)

April 2019

Senior Researcher Tyler Comings, Researcher Bryndis Woods, Senior Researcher Ricardo Lopez and Assistant Researcher Eliandro Tavares assisted Sierra Club in comments on Southwestern Electric Power Company (SWEPCO)’s Draft 2019 Integrated Resource Plan. The Sierra Club concluded that SWEPCO's analysis was biased in favor keeping coal assets on-line and failed to evaluate economics of its existing resources.

Link to Comments

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Performance-Based Incentives for Gas Utilities

Client: Gas Leak Allies

Authors: Bryndis Woods, Liz Stanton, PhD, and Ricardo Lopez, PhD

November 2018 - April 2019

Researcher Bryndis Woods, Clinic Director and Senior Economist Liz Stanton, PhD, and Senior Researcher Ricardo Lopez, PhD, prepared a policy brief discussing how Massachusetts' natural gas utilities currently receive compensation, the inconsistencies between utilities' incentives and the Commonwealth's legally mandated emission reductions, and the performance-based incentives that can align gas utilities' business interests with their responsibility to reduce emissions.

This policy brief is the first of two AEC publications on behalf of Gas Leak Allies. A forthcoming policy brief will analyze the return on investment for gas leak repairs in the Commonwealth.

Link to Policy Brief

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Massachusetts Non-Energy Benefits of Battery Storage

Client: Clean Energy Group

Authors: Bryndis Woods and Liz Stanton, PhD

April 2019

AEC-2019-04-WP-01

On behalf of the Clean Energy Group, Researcher Bryndis Woods and Clinic Director and Senior Economist Liz Stanton, PhD, prepared an Applied Economics Clinic white paper that presents the results of a preliminary assessment of seven non-energy benefits of battery storage. Currently, non-energy benefits of storage are not included in cost-benefit calculations for storage in Massachusetts—which has the same effect as assuming they have no value. We provide preliminary estimates of the value of seven non-energy benefits as a starting point for a discussion of how best to fully measure the advantages to Massachusetts of battery storage: avoided power outages, higher property values, avoided fines, avoided collections and terminations, avoided safety-related emergency calls, job creation, and less land used for power plants.

This white paper is part of a series of AEC publications on behalf of Clean Energy Group analyzing costs and benefits of battery storage in Massachusetts.

Link to White Paper

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