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Assessing Alternatives to the Proposed Chesterfield Energy Reliability Center (CERC)

Client: Southern Environmental Law Center (SELC)

Authors: Chirag T. Lala, Elisabeth Seliga, Joshua R. Castigliego, Elizabeth A. Stanton, PhD

July 2024

On behalf of the Southern Environmental Law Center (SELC), Researcher Chirag T. Lala, Assistant Researcher Elisabeth Seliga, Senior Researcher Joshua R. Castigliego, and Executive Director and Principal Economist Liz Stanton, PhD prepared a report that critiques the Virginia Electric and Power Company’s (d/b/a Dominion Energy Virginia) proposed Chesterfield Energy Reliability Center (CERC)—a 1,000-megawatt gas-fired combustion turbine facility—in Chesterfield, Virginia. AEC presents an assessment of an Alternative Portfolio—composed of solar, wind, and storage resources—that would provide the same energy and capacity needs as CERC, but at a lower cost. AEC finds that the midpoint of the range of likely levelized costs of the Alternative Portfolio is 52 percent less expensive than that of Dominion Energy Virginia’s proposed CERC: $263 million versus $544 million. The combination of solar, wind and storage meets CERC on peak capacity, beats CERC on annual generation, and would cost ratepayers just half of what Dominion Energy Virginia wants to spend on CERC. Notably, the Alternative Portfolio presented in this report includes neither energy efficiency nor demand response, both of which have the potential to lower costs still further. Investments in energy efficiency alone—made at levels similar to the annual investments common in numerous other states—could obviate the need for CERC by 2030 or sooner.

Link to Report

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tags: Joshua-Castigliego, Elisabeth Seliga, Chirag-Lala, Liz-Stanton
Tuesday 07.23.24
Posted by Liz Stanton
 

TVA’s Kingston Fossil Plant: An Economic Assessment of Replacement Alternatives

Client: Southern Environmental Law Center (SELC)

Author: Chirag T. Lala, Joshua R. Castigliego, Tyler Comings, Elisabeth Seliga

March 2024

On behalf of the Southern Environmental Law Center, Researchers Chirag T. Lala and Joshua R. Castigliego, Senior Economist Tyler Comings, and Assistant Researcher Elisabeth Seliga prepared a report that models the costs to consumers of alternatives for the soon-to-be retired Kingston Fossil Plant—a coal-fired power plant in Harriman, Tennessee that is owned and operated by the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). TVA’s Alternative A plan replaces Kingston with a gas-heavy portfolio that constructs gas combined cycle (CC) and combustion turbine (CT) plants, while Alternative B focuses on replacing Kingston with a clean energy portfolio that relies on solar and battery storage resources.

Among its four modeled alternatives, AEC finds the net present value costs of Alternative B—renewable and storage replacements that are self-built or procured through power purchase agreements—to be the lower cost option. This contradicts TVA’s claim that Alternative A is the lower cost option. In addition, it is not clear why TVA selected the amounts of solar and storage capacity in Alternative B. The storage capacity is exorbitant compared to the size of the Kingston plant and the solar capacity is made additional to a large amount of capacity TVA is already scheduled to build.

These irregularities are partly attributable to TVA’s failure to synchronize site specific resources assessments with an integrated planning process that provides a full range of plausible alternatives. AEC provides the following recommendations for TVA’s 2024 IRP:

  • Conduct an all-resource RFP that assesses the range of resources that could reasonably be constructed.

  • Consider the full set of resources that could facilitate decarbonization of TVA’s grid, including transmission and distribution, distributed energy resources, energy efficiency, demand response, and others.

  • Conduct optimization modelling on all potential resources instead of on pre-selected portfolios.

  • Ensure site-specific planning does not contradict TVA’s most recent IRP.

  • Ensure the IRP provides plausible schedules for the installation and decommissioning of capacity.

  • Use transparent assumptions and modeling inputs

Link to Report

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tags: Chirag-Lala, Tyler-Comings, Joshua-Castigliego, Elisabeth Seliga
Friday 03.22.24
Posted by Liz Stanton
 

Economic Impacts of Offshore Wind in Connecticut

Client: Connecticut Roundtable on Climate and Jobs (CRCJ)

Author: Chirag T. Lala, Joshua R. Castigliego

October 2023

On behalf of the Connecticut Roundtable on Climate and Jobs (CRCJ), Researchers Chirag Lala and Joshua Castigliego prepared a policy brief that assesses the economic impacts associated with installing and operating 2,000 megawatts (MW) of offshore wind resources in Connecticut to meet the State’s 2030 target. The benefits of wind procurement need not flow to Connecticut’s economy if neighboring states undertake industrial development efforts and Connecticut does not. AEC’s analysis finds that a concerted policy effort to develop Connecticut’s offshore wind industry would allow the addition of these offshore wind resources to create a total of 39,880 in-state job-years (i.e., one job-year is the equivalent of one person working full-time for one year) between 2024 and 2049 as well as an estimated $5,529 million in state economic output and $4,190 million in labor income

Link to Policy Brief

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tags: Chirag-Lala, Joshua-Castigliego
Tuesday 10.31.23
Posted by Liz Stanton
 

Puerto Rico’s 2019 and 2021 Greenhouse Gas Inventories Report

Client: Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources (DNER)

Authors: Liz Stanton, PhD, Joshua R. Castigliego, Chirag T. Lala, Sachin Peddada,
Jay Bonner, Eliandro Tavares, Sumera Patel, Alicia Zhang, Myisha Majumder,
David Jiang, and Jordan Burt; Ramón Bueno and Kari Hewitt

July 2023

On behalf of the Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources (DNER), AEC staff and partners prepared a report that presents the results for Puerto Rico’s 2019 and 2021 greenhouse gas emission inventories together with 20-year emissions projections under several scenarios and sensitivities. AEC established a methodology for conducting greenhouse gas emission inventories in Puerto Rico, which went through a comprehensive quality assurance and quality control process by an Expert Panel (established for this project and composed of experts in greenhouse gas emissions measurement and Puerto Rico climate and energy issues). Using AEC’s Emissions Measurement Inventory Tool (AEC-EMIT), AEC calculates net greenhouse gas emissions released in Puerto Rico’s seven emitting sectors: (1) Power Supply, (2) Direct Fuel, (3) Industrial Processes and Product Use, (4) Transportation, (5) Agriculture, (6) Forestry and Other Land Use, and (7) Waste Management.

Puerto Rico’s 2019 Climate Change Mitigation, Adaption, and Resiliency Law (i.e., Puerto Rico Act No. 33-2019) measures mandated emission reductions against an estimated 2005 emissions level of 53.3 MMT CO₂e and calls for a 50 percent reduction relative to 2005 emissions by 2025 (26.7 MMT CO₂e). Emission levels achieved in 2021 (34.3 MMT CO₂e) represent a 36 percent reduction in emissions from 2005 levels. With 14 percentage points and 4 years left to go, Puerto Rico must find another 7.7 MMT CO₂e to eliminate. Based on the Business-as-Usual projection in AEC’s analysis, Puerto Rico’s greenhouse gas emission levels will reach their mandated levels (50 percent of 2005 levels, or 26.7 MMT CO₂e) in 2035, 10 years later than the required 2025 target.

Based on the analysis presented in this report, AEC has identified several key recommendations to further facilitate Puerto Rico’s work towards achieving its ambitious and necessary decarbonization goals set out in Puerto Rico’s 2019 Climate Change Mitigation, Adaption, and Resiliency Law, including: (1) better data collection, (2) increased climate progress reporting (3) reprioritization in rebuilding its electric sector, and (4) a new focus in transportation planning.

Link to Report (English)

Link to Report (Español)

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tags: Chirag-Lala, Liz-Stanton, Elizabeth A. Stanton, Joshua-Castigliego, Sachin Peddada, Jay Bonner, Eliandro-Tavares, Sumera-Patel, Alicia-Zhang, Myisha-Majumder, David-Jiang, Jordan Burt
categories: Clean Energy Transition, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Puerto Rico
Thursday 07.27.23
Posted by Liz Stanton
 

Assessing TVA’s IRP Planning Practices

Norris Dam in Anderson County, Tennessee. Image Credit: Brian Stansberry / Creative Commons

Client: Prepared on behalf of the Southern Environmental Law Center

Authors: Chirag Lala, Elisabeth Seliga, Liz Stanton, PhD

July 2023

On behalf of the Southern Environmental Law Center, Researcher Chirag Lala, Assistant Researcher Elisabeth Seliga, and Senior Economist Liz Stanton, PhD published a report that compares the Tennessee Valley Authority’s (TVA’s) Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) processes in 2011, 2015, and 2019 to the actual changes in capacity additions and retirements made by TVA from 2011 to 2021. The paper also examines the site-specific planning process used by TVA to determine the replacements for the Cumberland Fossil Plant.

AEC staff make several key recommendations for TVA’s 2024 Integrated Resource Planning Process: (1) TVA must set aggressive climate goals in line with the Paris Agreement and the Biden Administration’s executive orders on achieving carbon free electricity by 2035; (2) TVA must be transparent about its assumptions and modeling inputs; (4) TVA must select a portfolio with a more targeted preferred resource plan; (3) TVA must plan to utilize the grants, loans, and tax credits of the Inflation Reduction Act; (5) TVA must clarify how it demarcates “ownership” of solar and wind resource; (6) TVA should conduct an all-resource Request for Proposals (RFP) for new resources; (7) TVA must ensure its site-specific planning documents reflect the most recent IRP plans and use methods that do not contradict overall system- and other site-specific planning exercises.

Link to Report

Link to Environmental Group Comments on TVA IRP

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tags: Chirag-Lala, Liz-Stanton, Elizabeth A. Stanton, Elisabeth Seliga
categories: Clean Energy Transition, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Massachusetts
Monday 07.10.23
Posted by Liz Stanton
 

The Interconnection Bottleneck: Why Most Energy Storage Projects Never Get Built

Image Credit: Sara Levine | Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Client: Prepared on behalf of Clean Energy Group

Authors: Chirag Lala, Jordan Burt, Sachin Peddada

May 2023

On behalf of the Clean Energy Group, Researcher Chirag Lala and Assistant Researchers, Sachin Pedadda and Jordan Burt prepared a report that assesses the obstacles preventing efficient interconnection of distributed energy storage resources. This Applied Economics Clinic (AEC) white paper identifies and explains these interconnection barriers in Massachusetts and makes recommendations to state agencies and working groups overseeing interconnection, distribution utilities, independent system operators, and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.  

AEC staff make these five key recommendations to stakeholders: (1) Develop proactive, integrated, and system-wide interconnection planning that takes a systemic view of applications and separates hosting capacity upgrades from particular project or cluster applications and makes hosting capacity upgrades in anticipation of grid-needs and future interconnection volume. (2) Continuously iterate interconnection processes to build in regular improvements, examine effectiveness, and coordinate public and private stakeholders to tackle ad hoc coordination problems. (3) Tackle barriers and solutions comprehensively by integrating multiple solutions. (4) End cost causation by spreading distribution system upgrade costs over a broader set of stakeholders (including ratepayers) than just allocating those costs to the projects or clusters applying for interconnection. (5) Incorporate storage operational parameters into interconnection processes so that storage resources are assessed in a manner reflecting how they would reasonably be expected to operate once interconnected alone or in conjunction with technologies regulating bidirectional power flows and facilitating predictable charging and discharging.

Link to Report

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tags: Chirag-Lala, Sachin Peddada, Jordan Burt
categories: Clean Energy Transition, Energy Efficiency, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Massachusetts
Wednesday 05.17.23
Posted by Liz Stanton
 

Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage and Louisiana’s Power Sector

Image Credit: Chad Davis, CC by 2.0

Client: Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) and Louisiana Against False Solutions Coalition

Authors: Chirag T. Lala, Joshua R. Castigliego, Sachin Peddada, Liz Stanton, PhD

April 2023

On behalf of the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) and the Louisiana Against False Solutions Coalition, Researchers Chirag Lala and Joshua Castigliego, Assistant Researcher Sachin Peddada, and Senior Economist Liz Stanton, PhD prepared a report that assesses the viability of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) as a decarbonization strategy in Louisiana’s power sector. AEC staff finds that CCUS is vulnerable to damage, poses risks to human health, safety, and the environment, and has a limited emissions reduction potential.

To fully understand and mitigate the risks associated with CCUS, decision-makers must assess (1) how and to what extent CCUS could negatively impact surrounding communities, (2) what policies, rules and regulations are required to ensure that CCUS deployment is conducted in a safe and responsible manner, and (3) which applications are most appropriate for CCUS versus other decarbonization alternatives. To identify the most appropriate role that CCUS could play in Louisiana’s decarbonization efforts, decision-makers must take into consideration the technical and economic feasibility, emissions reduction potential, and safety of CCUS infrastructure compared to that of alternative decarbonization strategies.

 Link to Report

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tags: Liz-Stanton, Sachin Peddada, Chirag-Lala, Joshua-Castigliego, Elizabeth A. Stanton
categories: Louisiana, Carbon Capture, Decarbonization
Wednesday 04.05.23
Posted by Liz Stanton
 

Energy Storage Benefit-Cost Analysis

Prepared on behalf of the Clean Energy States Alliance

Authors: Bryndis Woods, PhD, Sachin Peddada, Elisabeth Seliga, Chirag Lala, Eliandro Tavares, Gabriel Lewis, Tsanta Rakotoarisoa, Elizabeth A. Stanton, PhD

Contributing Editor: Todd Olinsky-Paul, Clean Energy States Alliance

AEC staff prepared a report that provides a framework for state energy agencies contemplating a benefit-cost analysis (BCA) for battery storage on behalf of the Clean Energy States Alliance. AEC’s battery storage BCA framework provides guidance for state energy agencies preparing to conduct cost-effectiveness evaluation for battery storage, including information regarding: cost-effectiveness tests, discount rates, benefits, costs, sensitivity analyses, and stakeholder engagement.

Link to Report

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tags: Liz-Stanton, Elizabeth A. Stanton, Bryndis-Woods, Sachin Peddada, Elisabeth Seliga, Chirag-Lala, Eliandro-Tavares, Gabriel Lewis, Tsanta Rakotoarisoa
categories: Renewable Energy, Battery Storage, Clean Energy Transition, Economic Analysis
Wednesday 12.14.22
Posted by Liz Stanton
 

Net Emissions Savings Benefit for a Battery Storage Facility in Wendell, Massachusetts

Image source: Borrego

Client: New Leaf Energy, Inc.

Authors: Joshua R. Castigliego, Chirag Lala, and Liz Stanton, PhD

August 2022

On behalf of New Leaf Energy, Inc., Researchers Joshua Castigliego and Chirag Lala, and Senior Economist Liz Stanton, PhD conducted analysis estimating the net change in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions resulting from New Leaf Energy’s proposed battery storage facility located in Wendell, Massachusetts. AEC estimated net emission savings of this proposed battery storage project as the sum of “positive” CO2 emissions savings (i.e., reduced emissions) from the electric grid due to charging and discharging at specific times and “negative” CO2 emissions (i.e., increased emissions) due to land-use conversion from forestland to grassland. Combined these two effects result in substantial net emissions savings (i.e., reduced emissions) resulting from the proposed New Leaf Energy facility.


The proposed battery facility at the Wendell site would draw power from the grid during periods in which clean, renewable energy sources are a high share of total New England generation, and discharge energy at times when mostly fossil-fuel-powered generators are displaced by this added energy. By charging using low-emission generation and displacing fossil fuel generation while discharging power, new battery resources result in lower electric grid emissions.

This publication is an update to a study originally released in November 2021 (AEC-2021-11-WP-01).

Link to White Paper

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tags: Joshua-Castigliego, Chirag-Lala, Liz-Stanton
categories: Emissions, Massachusetts, Battery Storage
Tuesday 08.02.22
Posted by Liz Stanton
 

Risk Assessment of Florida Power and Light and NextEra Energy Clean Energy Transition Plans

Client: Environmental Defense Fund

Authors: Tanya Stasio, Joshua Castigliego, Chirag Lala, and Liz Stanton, PhD

May 2022

On behalf of the Environmental Defense Fund, Researchers Tanya Stasio, Joshua Castigliego, Chirag Lala, and Director and Senior Economist Liz Stanton, PhD make recommendations for Florida Power and Light (FPL) to assist the utility in embracing the clean energy transition and reduce risks to ratepayers and its parent company, NextEra Energy's, shareholders.

Utilities across the United States are pursuing net-zero emissions targets while NextEra, the only large utility parent company that lacks an absolute carbon reduction goal, aims to reduce carbon intensity by 67 percent of 2005 levels by 2025. Moreover, FPL’s plans for the future are not aligned with NextEra’s emission rate reduction target. Based on AEC's assessment of FPL/NextEra’s transition plans and a review of electric utility climate plans, AEC offers seven recommendations for a new transition plan:

1. Coordinate NextEra and FPL transition plans

2. Establish short-, medium-, and long-term emission reduction targets, including a net zero target

3. Ramp up demand-side management efforts

4. Invest in energy storage technologies

5. Modernize the electric grid and increase renewable energy capacity

6. Consider multiple scenarios in future planning and reduce planning time horizon

7. Increase stakeholder and community engagement and continue to align plan with TCFD recommendations

Link to Report (updated May 16, 2022)

Link to Executive Summary

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tags: Joshua-Castigliego, Tanya-Stasio, Liz-Stanton, Chirag-Lala
categories: Florida, Utilities
Wednesday 05.04.22
Posted by Liz Stanton
 

Peabody Peaker Plant Risk Assessment

Client: Massachusetts Climate Action Network

Authors: Bryndis Woods, PhD, Chirag Lala, and Joshua Castigliego

March 2022

On behalf of the Massachusetts Climate Action Network (MCAN), AEC staff developed a policy brief that presents risks that Municipal Light Plants (MLPs) should consider as they decide whether to retain their ownership shares in the Peabody peaking power plant or withdraw from the contract: 1) market risks, like capacity and fuel prices, and 2) climate/environmental risks. We find that while ownership in the Peabody peaker protects against some capacity market risks, it leaves MLPs open to a variety of other important risks, including uncertainty in future gas fuel prices. existing Massachusetts emissions regulations and Environmental Justice (EJ) community protection laws, and the potential for stronger EJ laws, new federal legislation, and/or regulatory changes that put fossil fuel-fired assets at a disadvantage.

Link to Policy Brief

Link to MCAN Press Release

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tags: Joshua-Castigliego, Bryndis-Woods, Chirag-Lala
categories: Massachusetts
Thursday 03.10.22
Posted by Liz Stanton
 

An Analysis of NHTSA's Preliminary Regulatory Impact Analysis of 2021 Proposed Rulemaking for Model Years 2024-2026 Light-Duty Vehicle CAFE Standards

Clients: Office of the California Attorney General and the California Air Resource Board

Authors: Liz Stanton, PhD, Gabriel Lewis, and Chirag Lala

October 2021

On behalf of the Office of the California Attorney General and the California Air Resource Board, this Applied Economics Clinic white paper examines the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) Proposed Rulemaking for Model Years 2024-2026 Light-Duty Vehicle Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards. The proposal would increase the stringency of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards from their 2020 levels, setting the standards close to the path established in 2012. The NHTSA provides an estimate of the expected benefits in its 2021 Preliminary Regulatory Impact Analysis (PRIA), and it expects benefits in fuel savings, energy security, and drive value.Our analysis finds the estimated benefits to be a conservative estimate. Other benefits not included in the cost-benefit analysis would increase the net benefits and provide additional support for stricter fuel economy standards, if included in NHTSA’s comparison.

Link to White Paper

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tags: Liz-Stanton, Gabriel Lewis, Chirag-Lala
Tuesday 10.26.21
Posted by Liz Stanton
 

An Analysis of EPA's Proposed Revised 2023 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards

Client: Office of the California Attorney General

Authors: Liz Stanton, PhD, Gabriel Lewis, and Chirag Lala

September 2021

On behalf of the Office of the California Attorney General, this Applied Economics Clinic white paper examines the Environmental Protection Agency’s  (EPA) Proposed Revised 2023 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards. The proposal would increase the stringency of the Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles rule from their 2020 levels, setting the emissions standards close to the path established in the 2012 National Program for controlling light-duty vehicle greenhouse gas emissions. The EPA provides an estimate of the expected benefits in its 2021 Draft Regulatory Impact Analysis (DRIA), highlighting the proposal’s energy security benefits. Our analysis finds the estimated benefits to be a conservative estimate. Other benefits not included in the cost-benefit analysis would increase the net benefits and provide additional support for stricter greenhouse gas emissions standards, if included in the EPA’s calculations. AEC also compared the 2021 DRIA with the Final Regulatory Impact Assessment (FRIA) of the implemented 2020 SAFE final rule, finding that the methodology of the 2021 DRIA is more reliable than that of the 2020 FRIA.

Link to White Paper

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tags: Liz-Stanton, Gabriel Lewis, Chirag-Lala
Thursday 09.23.21
Posted by Liz Stanton
 

Estimating the Net Change in Carbon Dioxide Emissions for Solar Projects in Massachusetts

Client: Borrego

Authors: Joshua R. Castigliego, Chirag Lala, Eliandro Tavares, and Liz Stanton, PhD

September 2021

On behalf of Borrego, Researchers Joshua Castigliego and Chirag Lala, Assistant Researcher Eliandro Tavares, and Senior Economist Liz Stanton, PhD conducted analysis estimating the net change in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of Borrego’s proposed solar projects at three sites in Wareham, Massachusetts. AEC estimated net emission savings of the proposed projects as the sum of “positive” CO2 emissions savings from the electric grid due to renewable energy generation, and “negative” CO2 emissions due to land use conversion from forestland to grassland. AEC found that Borrego’s proposed projects offset four times more CO2 emissions than are emitted in their development.

Link to White Paper

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tags: Joshua-Castigliego, Chirag-Lala, Eliandro-Tavares, Liz-Stanton
categories: Emissions, Renewable Energy, Massachusetts, Solar
Wednesday 09.08.21
Posted by Liz Stanton
 

Comments on 2021 Guidance Towards Updating the U.S. Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases

FOE.png

Client: Friends of the Earth

Authors: Liz Stanton, PhD, Chirag Lala, and Tanya Stasio

June 2021

Director and Senior Economist Liz Stanton, PhD and Research Assistants Chirag Lala and Tanya Stasio prepared comments on the 2021 guidance towards updating the U.S. social cost of greenhouse gases (SC-GHG) on behalf of Friends of the Earth.
AEC staff recommend that the current revision to the U.S. SC-GHG: (1) Estimate climate damages in a single model; (2) Include climate damages around the world; (3) Value for future climate impacts; (4) Place equal value on all people, all families, and all communities; (5) Set fair and effective emission reduction targets, and; (6) Have a clear process for updating the SC-GHGs over time.





Link to Comments

Link to News Release, Common Dreams

Link to News Release, Friends of the Earth

Link to News Release, Red, Green and Blue

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tags: Tanya-Stasio, Liz-Stanton, Chirag-Lala
categories: Emissions, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Climate Change Impacts
Tuesday 06.22.21
Posted by Liz Stanton